National median home price hit a new record of $320,625.
Key housing market takeaways for 434 U.S. metro areas during the 4-week period ending October 4:
- The median home sale price increased 15% year over year to $320,625—the highest on record. The largest increase ever recorded in the Case-Shiller national home price index (which goes back through 1988) was 14.5% in September 2005. In the week ending October 4, home prices were up 16% from the same week a year earlier. Since the four-week period ending July 5, home prices have increased 6.8%. Over that same period in 2018 and 2019, prices declined an average of 4.4%.
- The median asking price of new listings was up 14.0% from a year earlier, an uptick from 12.9% during the four weeks ending September 27.
- Pending home sales climbed 26% year over year, the smallest growth rate since the four-week period ending August 16.
- New listings of homes for sale were up 4% from a year earlier. This is the first time year-over-year growth in new listings have fallen below 5% since the four-week period ending August 16.
- Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 28% from 2019 to a new all-time low. The rate of year-over-year supply declines has remained consistent at this level for the past few months.
- 45.2% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market. This has also held relatively steady for the last 17 weeks.
- The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, rose to 99.4%—an all-time high and 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
- For the week ending October 4, the seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was up 34.9% from pre-pandemic levels in January and February.
- Mortgage applications increased 5% week over week during the week ending October 2, another indicator that demand remains strong. For the week ending October 8, 30-year mortgage rates were flat at 2.87%. Rates have been below 3% since late July.
“Large, expensive, luxury homes are taking up a bigger share of the homes that are selling, which is driving a high growth rate for the median sale price,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Remote work is increasing demand from affluent people, while middle-income people are more often expected to do their jobs in-person, and many have been affected by furloughs and shutdowns.”
We will continue to track changes in sellers’ asking prices, which tend to precede trends in overall home price growth. Even as sales continue to experience a typical seasonal slowdown, real estate remains firmly in seller’s market territory.
“Sellers that are just getting into the market are seeing they can set their asking price a little higher than what they may have expected because inventory is so low and the buyer pool is still growing,” explained San Antonio Redfin real estate agent Jim Seifert. “Homebuying demand is still really strong, which has really pushed multiple offers to a whole new level. You’re not going to see prices go down right now.”
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